Market Bites - October 2025

Stay ahead of industry trends in the market with Bidfood's Market Bites, the latest updates across key product categories. From pricing pressure to seasonal shifts, here’s what you need to know to plan your menus with confidence. 

 Imported meats

• Imported raw material for our bacon, ham and small goods range continues to be influenced by both global supply channels and currency movements.

• At present, bellies and middles are showing signs of easing, while leg cuts remain strong. Shoulder and trim values are holding steady

• A key factor driving current market conditions is the sales channel strength of the packers in different countries. Where certain markets are restricted due to trade barriers, product is being redirected to alternative buyers, which can create shifts in pricing and availability

• Even when euro-denominated buy prices appear lower, by the time they are converted into NZD the landed cost can be higher, or at best only slightly reduced. The strength of the euro is therefore a major influence on the value of imported material

• We have, however, seen a slight reduction in some domestic chicken commodity products, with a small surplus of supply in the market. This is helping to offset some of the upward pressure from higher beef, lamb, and pork input costs

• Pork import price stable – Great option for a cheaper protein

Beef

• As “off season” comes to an end NZ Beef kill is expected to come on later October. Should see NZ Beef becoming available towards the back end of October.  But availability usually limited initially as NZ meat companies fulfil off shore contracts

• Expect to see Australian beef around yet for some time as so much appears to have been imported – too much? Quite possibly will remain on the NZ to support local supply

• Seasonal maintenance, shut downs coming to an end and calf processing finished

• Strong global demand to remain very strong keeping Beef prices. Don’t foresee any real change here

• Impact of US tariffs (15%) on NZ beef into the US an unknown. May get a better picture as the new NZ season ramps up

  
  

Lamb

• Lamb pricing is moving up again. NZD weakness not helping things

• Lamb schedule has now hit $11/kg (Schedule the Farmgate price paid to farmers for his livestock by Meat Processors). Couple this with apparent market push back market processors it can’t be easy for Lamb processors

• Lamb seems now well entrenched in the luxury protein group!

Poultry:

• Poultry pricing and supply remains steady

• New season Hoki & Blue Grenadier is now available to order from your Bidfood branch

• Domestic salmon supply remains constrained due to strong demand from export markets

  
  

What’s New

• Local asparagus (in peak now)

• White asparagus (pre-order available October)

• Heirloom tomatoes (early October start)

• Medley cherry tomatoes

• Pomegranates

• Sugar snap peas & broad beans

• Berries – strawberries, blueberries, blackberries

• Globe artichokes

• Perla & Piccolo medley potatoes

What’s Finishing

• Tamarillos

• Yams (3–4 weeks left)

• Brussels sprouts (nearly done)

• Cavolo nero

• Witloof

• NZ navels

• NZ limes

What’s Imported

• Limes – Vietnamese

• Lemons – imports arriving in October

• Grapes – USA supply

• Melons – patchy supply from Australia, no NZ yet

What’s Good Buying

• Leafy greens – mesclun, baby spinach, lettuce (strong supply, good quality)

• Herbs – basil, coriander, dill, chervil, chive, oregano, sage

• Kumara

• Courgettes – all NZ grown, prices easing

• Cabbage (green & red) – supply improving, prices easing

• Tomatoes – prices coming down

Tight Supply

• Potatoes, pumpkins & onions

• Apples (tightening as storage depletes)

• Melons (erratic)

  
  

• Fonterra have announced that the forecast Farmgate Milk Price has been set at $10.00 per kilogram of milk solids for the quarter commencing 29^th September 2025

• There is no change in raw milk cost from the previous Farmgate Milk Price midpoint announcement of $10.00 per kilogram of milk solids.  As a result, butter and cheese pricing will remain stable

Olive Oil Market

Current: Prices high and unstable end of season pricing; very limited stocks.

Outlook: New harvest (Oct–Nov) to ease/stabilise, better availability vs. last season, but premium quality to remain scarce and costly.

Production: Spain strong, Italy partial recovery, others steady - overall supply better than last year

Canola Oil Market

Current: Prices unattractive; Expect pricing to stay high for now, but better buying opportunities may emerge later in the season

Outlook: Canada crop in good shape; trend yields (19–20 Mt) likely with favourable weather - supply outlook strong.

Demand: US biofuel demand uncertain; China opening to Australian canola adds competition - overall bearish outlook for 25/26.

Pricing for most Coconut based products out of Indonesia / Philippines etc. continue to rise due to extreme weather events (typhoons etc.), aging Coconut trees / slow replanting, and increased worldwide demand.

• Summer season is approaching which is the time to start adjusting drinks menus – supply is stable.

• Highballs are on trend

• Paloma and other margaritas continue to trend

• Spritz is highly desirable among Gen Z/Millennial/Gen X due to how the category shows up on socials and the lower ABV