Foodservice Market Update NZ | Market Bites October 2026

Market Bites - October 2026

As we move further into spring and towards the busy summer trading period, October brings a mix of steady supply, seasonal opportunities and some emerging pressures to keep an eye on.

Protein supply remains relatively well supported, although developing El Niño conditions could influence livestock availability as we head towards summer and early 2027. In imported pork, global supply remains healthy, but freight, shipping capacity and lead times continue to play an important role in landed costs.

Across fresh produce, spring is bringing plenty of opportunity, with asparagus now in full swing, new-season tomatoes arriving and berry availability building. At the same time, potatoes and brown onions remain tight, with pricing pressure expected across several lines.

As we move further into spring and towards the busy summer trading period, protein supply remains relatively well supported, although there are several factors worth watching as we head towards Christmas and early 2027.

Local NZ Protein

Beef

Winter beef supply has been comparatively good and is continuing into spring, with PR kill also better than expected and supply into Bidfood branches generally good.

However, developing El Niño conditions are an important watch point. Drier conditions across northern and eastern parts of New Zealand could bring forward the processing season and, if feed availability declines, potentially lead to earlier destocking or lower carcass weights later in the season.

Silver Fern Farms and Pure South programmed chilled supply across steak cuts continues to perform well, with NZ steak and round-cut pricing currently expected to remain relatively stable.

Alternative Prime Beef (PR/PB) cuts have also developed a solid following as a value option alongside Prime Steer (PS). While these cuts can offer a competitive price point, they do not provide the same eating quality as Prime Steer.

Lamb

Lamb is facing a similar outlook, with the potential for El Niño conditions to bring forward the new-season processing period.

Good winter conditions and favourable lambing have supported stock availability heading into the new season. However, longer-term supply remains influenced by structural changes across the sector, with some farmers moving land from sheep into beef or carbon forestry.

The 2026/27 lamb kill is forecast to remain broadly steady at around 16.9 million head following declines in previous years. Farmgate pricing may ease if forecast reductions flow through the market, although strong offshore demand for New Zealand lamb continues to provide underlying support.

NZ Pork

Freshpork pork pricing remains steady, with the possibility of some modest increases as we move closer to Christmas.

Supply remains consistent, providing a relatively stable local pork market as we head into the summer trading period.

Imported Protein

Imported Pork

Global pork supply remains well supported, with production growth across the USA, Brazil and China. Softer Chinese import demand is also helping maintain global availability and limiting some upward price pressure.

For New Zealand, however, global supply is only part of the picture. Foreign exchange, freight, shipping capacity, equipment availability and transit times all continue to influence the final landed cost and timing of imported product.

Europe – an opportunity to watch

European production is slightly lower, but exports are falling faster. With more product remaining within the European market, pricing is coming under pressure.

We are actively monitoring European supply for opportunities where the overall landed cost, product specification and supply reliability make sense for New Zealand customers.

USA & Brazil

Production continues to grow across both markets, adding supply and competition globally.

We continue to assess these origins alongside Europe to maintain flexibility and avoid relying too heavily on any single market.

Spring is well underway, bringing improving availability across a number of fresh produce lines. Asparagus is in full swing, new-season tomatoes are arriving and berry availability is beginning to build.

There are, however, several lines worth watching as supply tightens and pricing moves.

In Season & Looking Good

• NZ asparagus – In full swing.

• White asparagus – Available for pre-order.

• Heirloom tomatoes – New season starting.

• Tomatoes – Good supply, with pricing easing.

• Strawberries & blueberries – Available now.

• Raspberries & blackberries – Coming soon.

• Courgettes – NZ supply is building and pricing is easing.

• Brassicas – Good supply.

• Herbs – Good supply.

• Mesclun, baby spinach & lettuce – Good supply.

• Citrus – Going well.

• Perla & Piccolo Medley potatoes – Available now.

Market Watch

• Potatoes – Supply is tight and pricing is increasing.

• Agria potatoes – Particularly tight.

• Brown onions – Tight supply, with pricing increasing.

• Kiwifruit – Pricing is expected to increase later in October.

• Melons – Australian supply is fluctuating.

• Australian watermelon – Available.

• Grapes – US supply available.

Finishing Up

Several winter lines are now coming to the end of their season:

• Brussels sprouts

• Jerusalem artichokes – finished

• Yams / Earth Gems

• Butternut

Looking Ahead

October’s market is a reminder of the importance of planning ahead as we move towards peak summer and festive trading.

While protein supply is currently relatively well supported, developing weather conditions and international freight pressures remain important factors to watch. In fresh produce, spring is opening up more seasonal opportunities, while tighter supply across potatoes, onions and selected imported lines could influence availability and pricing.

Keep in touch with your local Bidfood team for the latest availability, pricing and product opportunities as market conditions continue to change.

Shipping & Supply Chain

Golden Week – plan ahead

China’s Golden Week runs from 1–7 October and typically creates a rush to ship cargo ahead of factory closures, followed by some disruption as production and shipping schedules return to normal.

With shipping capacity expected to remain tight through late September and October, lead times and equipment availability will remain important considerations. Freight rates are also expected to remain firm around Golden Week, with fuel costs another potential source of pressure.

What are we doing?

We are planning ahead with suppliers and carriers to:

• Secure shipping space and equipment early

• Protect planned shipments

• Monitor European reefer availability

• Review alternative supply origins

• Manage freight and landed costs

• Maintain continuity of supply

  
  

What does this mean for customers?

While global pork markets remain well supplied, New Zealand customers are not completely insulated from cost and supply pressures.

Our focus is on managing the whole supply chain – from origin pricing through to freight and landed cost – so we can identify opportunities while protecting continuity of supply.

If you know your upcoming pork requirements, giving us early visibility provides more options to secure the right product, at the right time and from the right origin.

We will continue to monitor conditions across both local and international markets and keep you informed as the season progresses.