Foodservice Market Update NZ | Market Bites October 2026
As we move further into spring and towards the busy summer trading period, October brings a mix of steady supply, seasonal opportunities and some emerging pressures to keep an eye on.
Protein supply remains relatively well supported, although developing El Niño conditions could influence livestock availability as we head towards summer and early 2027. In imported pork, global supply remains healthy, but freight, shipping capacity and lead times continue to play an important role in landed costs.
Across fresh produce, spring is bringing plenty of opportunity, with asparagus now in full swing, new-season tomatoes arriving and berry availability building. At the same time, potatoes and brown onions remain tight, with pricing pressure expected across several lines.
Beef
Winter beef supply has been comparatively good and is continuing into spring.
New Zealand is experiencing a rapidly intensifying El Niño event, officially declared in July 2026 and forecast to persist until at least the end of February 2027.
With many eastern parts of the country already drying out, there is a strong likelihood that the new processing season could begin earlier than usual.
The El Niño weather risk: The worsening “Super El Niño” presents potential supply risks closer to Christmas and into early 2027. Dry and drought-prone conditions across northern and eastern parts of New Zealand could force farmers into early destocking or impact carcass finish weights if feed availability declines.
Silver Fern Farms and Pure South programmed chilled supply across steak cuts continues to perform well, while NZ steak and round-cut pricing is expected to remain stable at current levels.
PR kill has also been better than expected, with supply into Bidfood branches generally good.
Alternative Prime Beef (PR/PB) cuts have developed a solid following as a value alternative to Prime Steer (PS). However, it is worth remembering that Prime Beef (PB/PR) does not offer the same eating quality as Prime Steer.
Lamb
Lamb is expected to face similar El Niño-related conditions to beef, with a good probability that the new lamb processing season will also begin earlier than usual.
A good winter and favourable lambing conditions are producing excellent stock for the coming season.
However, structural changes within the sector continue to affect longer-term supply. Farmers are increasingly shifting land use away from sheep towards beef or carbon forestry, placing a long-term limit on national flock expansion.
The total number of lambs processed for the 2026/27 season is forecast to remain steady at approximately 16.9 million head, following declines in previous years.
There is potential for lamb pricing to ease if forecast reductions in farmgate prices paid to farmers flow through the market. For now, it remains a case of wait and see.
Underlying offshore and global demand for New Zealand lamb remains good.
NZ Pork
Freshpork pork pricing remains steady, although there is still the possibility of smaller increases as we move closer to Christmas.
Supply remains steady, as we have come to expect.
Pork & Shipping Outlook
What’s happening – and what does it mean for your supply?
Global pork supply remains well supported, with production growth across the USA, Brazil and China, while Chinese import demand remains relatively soft. This is helping keep global availability steady and limiting some upward price pressure.
However, getting product into New Zealand remains a key part of the equation. Foreign exchange, freight, shipping capacity, equipment availability and lead times all continue to influence the final landed cost.
Europe – an opportunity to watch
European production is slightly lower, but exports are falling faster. With more product remaining within Europe, pricing is coming under pressure.
We’re actively watching European supply for opportunities where the overall landed cost, specification and supply reliability make sense for New Zealand customers.
USA & Brazil
Production continues to grow across both markets, adding supply and competition globally.
We’re continuing to assess these origins alongside Europe to ensure we’re not relying on a single market.
Golden Week – plan ahead
China’s Golden Week runs from 1–7 October and typically creates a rush to ship cargo before factories close, followed by some disruption as production and shipping schedules return to normal.
With shipping capacity expected to remain tight through late September and October, lead times and equipment availability will be important to watch.
Freight rates are also expected to remain firm around Golden Week, with fuel costs another potential source of pressure.
What are we doing?
We’re planning ahead with suppliers and carriers to:
Secure space and equipment early
Protect planned shipments
Monitor European reefer availability
Review alternative supply origins
Manage freight and landed costs
Maintain continuity of supply
What does this mean for you?
The global pork market may be well supplied, but that doesn’t mean New Zealand customers are insulated from cost and supply pressures.
Our focus is on managing the whole supply chain – from origin pricing through to freight and landed cost – so we can identify opportunities while protecting continuity of supply.
If you know your upcoming pork requirements, giving us early visibility gives us more options to secure the right product, at the right time and from the right origin.
We’ll continue to monitor the market and keep you informed as conditions change.
Spring is well underway, bringing improving availability across a number of fresh produce lines. Asparagus is in full swing, new-season tomatoes are arriving and berry availability is beginning to build.
There are, however, several lines worth watching as supply tightens and pricing moves.
In Season & Looking Good
NZ asparagus – In full swing.
White asparagus – Available for pre-order.
Heirloom tomatoes – New season starting.
Tomatoes – Good supply, with pricing easing.
Strawberries & blueberries – Available now.
Raspberries & blackberries – Coming soon.
Courgettes – NZ supply is building and pricing is easing.
Brassicas – Good supply.
Herbs – Good supply.
Mesclun, baby spinach & lettuce – Good supply.
Citrus – Going well.
Perla & Piccolo Medley potatoes – Available now.
Market Watch
Potatoes – Supply is tight and pricing is increasing.
Agria potatoes – Particularly tight.
Brown onions – Tight supply, with pricing increasing.
Kiwifruit – Pricing is expected to increase later in October.
Melons – Australian supply is fluctuating.
Australian watermelon – Available.
Grapes – US supply available.
Finishing Up
Several winter lines are now coming to the end of their season:
Brussels sprouts
Jerusalem artichokes – finished
Yams / Earth Gems
Butternut
Looking Ahead
October’s market is a reminder of the importance of planning ahead as we move towards peak summer and festive trading.
While protein supply is currently relatively well supported, developing weather conditions and international freight pressures remain important factors to watch. In fresh produce, spring is opening up more seasonal opportunities, while tighter supply across potatoes, onions and selected imported lines could influence availability and pricing.
Keep in touch with your local Bidfood team for the latest availability, pricing and product opportunities as market conditions continue to change.
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